Maybe it is a mandate – @THeNVIndy & Orrin Johnson

The Nevada Independent had a column by Orrin Johnson going over some vote totals and claiming that Democrats in the Nevada Legislature do not have a mandate after winning back both houses of the legislature in 2016, by pointing out the Republicans won more total votes, despite the Democrats flipping both the Senate and Assembly back to Democratic majorities.

Guys who brag about mandates probably don’t have much of a mandate

He runs the numbers and comes to the correct conclusion that Republicans garnered more votes than Democrats when looking at the overall vote totals for assembly races by 53.2% going to Republicans, 44.7% going to Democrats and others getting 2.1%.

Sounded interesting, so I took a look at the reasons behind those numbers and found this:¬†Yes, the Republicans did, in fact win more total votes in the Assembly, but stopping there doesn’t tell the whole story.

Overall, there were 1,016,642 total votes cast statewide in assembly races…….my numbers from going through each race ( http://silverstateelection.com/NVAssembly/ ) show that Republicans did win the majority with 533,887 (52.51%), Democrats were at 461,910 (45.43%) and other parties had 20,845 (2.05%) .

Now lets look at the races themselves and you can see why Republicans had the greater vote total.

There were 42 Assembly races, Democrats won 27 races while Republicans won 15 over all.

In head to head Republican vs Democrat candidate races, the Democrats won 24 races…..Republicans beat the Democrat in 8 races…..so when facing off head to head, the Democrat beat the Republican 24 out of 32 times for a 75% win percentage.

Two democrats won unopposed races (AD’s 3 & 11) where combined the vote total was 23,518.

Seven Republicans won unopposed races (AD’s 13, 19, 26, 32, 33, 39) where the combined vote total was 127,124 or 103,606 more than the races won by unopposed Democrats.

In AD16 the Democrat won over a third party candidate and in AD36 the Republican won over the third party candidate.

So the seven Republicans who ran unopposed in heavily Republican districts piled up the votes (103,606) skewing the overall vote total that Orrin Johnson points out in his column……..but when going head to head the Republicans batted 8 for 32 which is a mundane .250 batting average ……..and when a party wins 75% of the head to head races vs the opponent, I think one might call it a mandate, or at least a strong statement from voters, as Orrin Johnson’s GOP was defeated 24 to 8 in head to head competition. That might be a concern to Republicans, because winning seats means more than getting total votes.

Aaron Ford and Jason Frierson need not shy away from pushing their agenda – Push that Nevada Blueprint agenda; (a thing the GOP never had until last week until Mike Roberson had his Senate colleagues sign on to a “after the start” pamphlet of nice photos claiming everything they did in 2015 should be kept in place) ……..push the Republicans in the legislature to stand against working people and make Governor Sandoval take a stand against working people…….make the GOP statewide own their stance & opposition to a living wage, equal pay, collective bargaining, freedom of choice, renewable energy, etc – This is the beginning of the 2018 election cycle….get the GOP on the record and make them take a stance!!!

 


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